By: Lead Data Analyst, Global Nurse Guide
NCLEX pass rates are dropping in 2025 due to difficulty normalization (the test algorithm adjusting to the new partial credit scoring) and COVID learning loss affecting the graduating cohort’s foundational science knowledge. International first-time pass rates have seen the steepest decline, dropping to approximately 46-47%.
The Hook: The 2023/2024 ‘Easy Mode’ is over. Welcome to the new normal.
For the past two years, the nursing world breathed a collective sigh of relief. The launch of the Next Generation NCLEX (NGN) in 2023 brought with it a surge in pass rates that made the exam seem, dare we say, “beatable.” But as we close the books on Q3 2025, the data is screaming a different story. The honeymoon phase is officially over.
The latest numbers from the NCSBN reveal a sharp, undeniable correction. The curve has flattened, and for some groups, it has crashed. If you are preparing for the NCLEX in late 2025 or 2026, you cannot rely on the strategies that worked for your seniors last year. The exam has adapted—and so must you.
The Data: A Stark Reality Check
The drop isn’t anecdotal; it is statistical. While US-educated students are seeing a frustrating dip, international candidates are facing a crisis. Below is the breakdown of the 2024 vs. 2025 first-time pass rates.
| Candidate Type | 2024 Peak Rates (Approx.) | 2025 Trend (Q1-Q3) | The Result |
| US First-Time Testers | ~91-92% | ~87-88% | A notable “correction” back to pre-pandemic difficulty. |
| International First-Time | ~58% | ~46-47% | A CATASTROPHIC 11-12% DROP |
| US Repeat Testers | ~55% | ~51-53% | Odds are barely a coin flip. |
| International Repeaters | ~40% | ~30% | CRITICAL FAILURE RATE |
Data Sources: Aggregated trends from NCSBN quarterly reports & major review updates.
If you are an international nurse, the statistic in red should be your wake-up call. Nearly half of the international cohort passed in 2024; in 2025, less than half are making the cut.
Why the Drop? The Analysis
Why is this happening now? Our analysis points to two converging factors that have created a “perfect storm” for 2025 examinees.
1. “Difficulty Normalization” (The Algorithm caught up)
When the NGN launched, the new “Partial Credit” scoring rules (Polytomous Scoring) artificially inflated scores. Students who previously scored zero on complex questions were suddenly getting 2 or 3 points for partial knowledge. This led to the 2024 spike.
However, the NCLEX is a norm-referenced examination. As the test bank gathered millions of data points, the difficulty of the questions likely “normalized.” The exam algorithm has recalibrated. To get that same passing logit score in 2025, you now need to demonstrate a higher level of precision than you did in 2024. The “free points” buffer has evaporated.
2. The “COVID Learning Loss” Cohort
We cannot ignore the timeline. The class of 2025 did their core prerequisite sciences (Anatomy & Physiology, Microbiology) during the peak of 2020-2022. Many of these foundational courses were online, open-book, or pass/fail.
The NGN tests Clinical Judgment, which relies entirely on a deep understanding of pathophysiology. If your foundation is cracked because you took A&P on Zoom, the NGN Case Studies will expose it. You can’t critically think about kidney failure interventions if you never truly mastered renal physiology.
The “Partial Credit” Myth
Stop telling yourself, “It’s okay, I get partial credit now.” This mindset is dangerous.
Polytomous Scoring (getting points for correct answers without getting the whole question right) was designed to make the measurement of ability more precise, not to make the exam easier.
The Trap: In the old NCLEX, you either knew it or you didn’t. In the NGN, partial credit keeps you in the game longer, preventing you from failing fast. But it doesn’t lower the passing standard.
The Reality: The new scoring rules (like +/- scoring on Select All That Apply) penalize guessing. If you select a wrong answer, it subtracts from your right answer. In 2025, students are over-selecting answers thinking they are fishing for points, but they are actually zeroing out their own scores.
The International Crisis: It’s a Language Test Now
Why did international rates plummet to ~46%? The answer lies in the Case Studies.
The NGN is no longer just a nursing test; it is a high-level reading comprehension test. A single case study involves six progressive questions with tabs of medical records, nurses’ notes, and history.
Nuance is the Killer: The difference between a correct action and a fatal error often hangs on a single adjective in the patient’s chart (e.g., “restless” vs. “lethargic”).
Clinical Protocol: International nurses often have immense clinical experience, but the NGN tests US-specific clinical judgment protocols. The decline shows a gap between knowing medicine and understanding US nursing delegation and prioritization.
Strategic Advice: How to Beat the Odds
Panic will not help you pass. Strategy will. Here is your battle plan for the 2025/2026 NGN:
Stop Memorizing, Start Processing: You cannot flashcard your way through a Case Study. Stop memorizing lists of symptoms. Instead, ask why? Why does this symptom lead to this intervention? If you can’t explain the physiology, you aren’t ready.
Practice Case Studies Daily: Do not just do multiple-choice questions. Force yourself to do 3-5 full NGN Case Studies every single day. You need to build the stamina to read through charts without missing the details.
For International Nurses (IENs):
English for Nursing: Do not rely on general IELTS/TOEFL prep. You need specific “English for Nursing” preparation. Look into OET (Occupational English Test) resources, even if you aren’t taking that specific exam, because they train you to read medical charts in English.
Understand the +/- Scoring: Be conservative on Select All That Apply questions. If you aren’t 100% sure, do not select it. Guessing is mathematically worse than leaving it blank in many NGN formats.
The data is harsh, but it is clear. The bar has been raised. It’s time to rise to meet it.
